| The myth that a jockey determines the fate of a | | | | also-ran. |
| horse's race is a hard one to dispel. Many people will | | | | It is easy to blame a poor race's outcome on the |
| bet the outcome of races solely on the "skill" of the | | | | human. But remember, even the best jockey in the |
| jockey. After all, isn't that why they list jockeys' stats | | | | world can't make a losing horse win. Likewise, a bad |
| on the racing program? Is the jockey's past | | | | jockey cannot make an average horse win, either. This |
| performances actually a factor that should be taken | | | | is true only of the worst jockeys though. 99 times out |
| into account? | | | | of 100, the jockey's skill should not play a role in your |
| The most obvious example that comes to mind is | | | | handicapping. |
| Calvin Borel's trip on Mine That Bird in the 2009 | | | | Why then do some jockeys have better records than |
| Kentucky Derby. Borel took the long shot horse on a | | | | others? The law of large numbers would argue that |
| perfect trip around the race track, something he did at | | | | given a large enough sample size, if all jockeys had the |
| the 2007 Kentucky Derby and then later in 2010. He | | | | same ability, they would all have similar winning |
| kept the horse on the rail and waited for traffic to | | | | averages. But this does not apply to jockeys for one |
| clear up. Once an opening appeared, Borel headed the | | | | main reason: the horses that jockeys ride are not all of |
| horse to the front of the pack toward victory. Having | | | | the same ability. Someone has to win races, and when |
| won three out of the last four Derbies, Borel seems to | | | | trainers look at jockeys' records, it will inevitably |
| be a sure bet in big race situations. | | | | happen that winning jockeys will be given better |
| Does the jockey have that much of an influence over | | | | horses, thus making a good jockey's record even |
| the outcome of a race, though? The jockey is | | | | better. |
| responsible for the human decisions during a race, but | | | | If jockeys' records are so biased, why do so many |
| the horse is essentially the one responsible for putting | | | | people swear by them? Jockeys' records are |
| forth the effort. In other words, the jockey is only as | | | | important to look at for one simple reason: winning |
| good as the horse he rides. No matter how much the | | | | jockeys will continue to get better mounts. So although |
| jockey urges the horse, if it's a dud, the horse will lose | | | | the reasoning is different, a jockey's record is, in fact, |
| the race. Of course, there is also the luck factor that | | | | important. Winning jockeys will get better mounts, so a |
| needs to be taken into account as well. In Borel's | | | | jockey's record is not quite a snapshot of the jockey's |
| situation, if traffic had not cleared at just the right | | | | ability, but rather a glimpse of what kind of horses the |
| moment, Mine That Bird would have just been an | | | | jockey is given to ride during races. |