| In case you missed it, and I don't know how you would | | | | could you possibly bet on a horse like that against such |
| with all the media coverage, Big Brown, the favorite to | | | | a prohibitive favorite? Well first of all, no one said you |
| win the Belmont, didn't win, in fact, he didn't finish the | | | | had to bet on him, but there were some very |
| race. The horse who was the longest price on the | | | | compelling reasons if you dug deep enough. |
| board won the race. In other words, the biggest long | | | | First of all, the favorite had never raced that distance. |
| shot. Many people were shocked by the results, but | | | | The favorite had been in two very hard races within a |
| for professionals who make a living at horse racing | | | | matter of weeks. The favorite had hoof problems. The |
| handicapping, it was no big surprise. | | | | Belmont is famous for burying favorites. Nick Zito is |
| Long shots win all the time, why should a big race like | | | | famous for winning the Belmont with a favorite. You |
| the Belmont be any different? Perhaps all the media | | | | see, there are long shots and then there are long |
| hype about the favorite had something to do with the | | | | shots. The important thing to ask yourself when |
| shock, along with the fact that there were many | | | | considering a long shot, is this, "If this race was run 100 |
| casual race goers who played the race. Many of them | | | | times, how many of those times would the favorite |
| thought they were betting on a sure thing. Welcome to | | | | win and how many would some other horse in the |
| the world of horse racing. It isn't that easy as any one | | | | race win?" Then ask yourself this, "If some other horse |
| who has been horse racing handicapping and betting | | | | in this race is going to beat the favorite, which horse in |
| for very long can tell you. | | | | this field has some factors that indicate it has a |
| Favorites win about a third of the time. Many of the | | | | chance?" Finally, compare the number of times you |
| races that aren't won by the favorite are won by a | | | | think the other horse, the long shot, could win and |
| horse that is considered a contender and is going off | | | | compare that with the odds. At 38-1, the odds on |
| at reasonable odds but isn't considered a long shot. | | | | Da'Tara, the horse would only have to win 3 races out |
| The rest of the races are won by long shots. When a | | | | of 100 to show a profit. |
| long shot comes out of the clouds and beats the | | | | The odds on Big Brown were 1-4. That means that Big |
| horse you have bet on, it comes as a shock and is an | | | | Brown would have to win the race 81 out of 100 times |
| unpleasant feeling. But when you have bet on the long | | | | to show a modest profit for anyone who bet on him. |
| shot and win big money, it is another story. That is one | | | | Do you now see how a long shot can become a |
| of the best thrills in horse racing betting. | | | | good bet and a favorite, despite the hype, can be a |
| Now all long shots are not created equally. The horse | | | | lousy bet? Horse racing handicapping and betting isn't |
| that won the Belmont, Da'Tara, was a well bred horse, | | | | rocket science but like many things in life, with a good |
| trained by a great trainer, Nick Zito. But Da'Tara had | | | | system and some common sense, you can be a |
| only won one other race in his very short racing | | | | winner if you don't mind bucking the crowd and thinking |
| career and the favorite, Big Brown, had won all five of | | | | for yourself. |
| his races including two legs of the triple crown. How | | | | |