| Most handicappers know what a bias is. It simply | | | | wins 60% of the time, several early speed horses |
| means that some horse racing factor, like the post | | | | may be bet below their fair odds, considering the fact |
| position a horse has or a running style, will give an | | | | that 40% of the races are still won by horses with a |
| advantage or disadvantage. You can figure out some | | | | different running style. |
| biases very easily simply by looking at post position | | | | It is what I call an anti-bias. As more and more money |
| statistics or track models. The problem with biases, of | | | | is poured into the win pool on those front running types, |
| course, is that they soon become common knowledge | | | | a wise horse player is closely scrutinizing the rest of |
| and may be unprofitable bits of information. | | | | the field to find the horse that can beat them. You |
| The whole point of handicapping is to understand what | | | | may call it contrarian handicapping or just being a |
| each horse's chances of winning are and to use that | | | | smart horse player. The truth of the matter is, the |
| information to find a profitable bet. A profitable bet is | | | | smartest horse players are the ones who shop for |
| one that pays more than the crowd 's opinion of the | | | | value and will not bet on a horse just because it has a |
| horse warrants. For instance, the odds on the horse | | | | statistical edge. They demand a fair price and often |
| are 2-1. This computes to a break even bet if the | | | | leave the track with more money than they entered |
| horse will win one out of three races. | | | | with. |
| But what if this particular horse, with the attributes it | | | | Before you enter the race track, on your next trip, think |
| has going for it, is actually likely to win one out of two | | | | about what you know about that track and how it |
| races? At 2-1, it becomes a profitable bet. On the | | | | plays. Then look to exploit that knowledge in either of |
| other hand, if it is only likely to win one out of four | | | | two ways, either by betting on a horse with the bias |
| times, it is unprofitable. | | | | working in its favor or by betting against it when the |
| Biases are often over rated by the crowd and | | | | crowd over values it. Either way, you'll come out a |
| produce odds that are unprofitable. For instance, in | | | | winner. |
| races where the early speed has an advantage and | | | | |