| One of the biggest problems most people face when | | | | numbers together and see what Speedy's final score |
| trying to pick winners and make money betting on | | | | is, 23 + 33 + 18 = 74. |
| horse races, is how to figure out which horse is best | | | | If you do that for every horse in the race that Speedy |
| and which ones will make you a profit. That is no easy | | | | is in it might look something like this, |
| task because there are so many variables to make | | | | 1. Speedy = 74 |
| sense of and compare. A system is just what the | | | | 2. Happy = 60 |
| name implies, a method for arranging the data so that | | | | 3. Grumpy = 62 |
| you can wrap your brain around it and make sense of | | | | 4. Blinky = 58 |
| it. | | | | As you can see, Speedy is head and shoulders above |
| There are lots of horse racing systems and a few of | | | | the other horses, if these three factors are all we use. |
| them are even good. There is nothing wrong with | | | | You could, of course, add more factors for things that |
| shopping around and finding a good and perhaps easy | | | | you think are important, such as class, recency, etc. |
| horse racing system. But there is another alternative | | | | The point is that when you are done you will have a |
| and it may not be as hard as you think, I'm talking | | | | number and comparing all the numbers will give you an |
| about creating your own horse racing system. | | | | idea of each runner's chances. |
| All you really need to decide which horse is a good bet | | | | From this example I would expect Speedy to go off at |
| in a race is a good way of comparing each horse to | | | | a very low price, say, 4-5. Let's say, however, that you |
| the others and then knowing how much better or | | | | think Speedy is vulnerable and not worth that 4-5 price. |
| worse each horse is compared to the rest. While | | | | If you are shopping for value, the next obvious choice |
| words like, better, worse, best, help, there is no way to | | | | would be Grumpy. He is just 2 points better than |
| turn that into a number that helps with the dollars and | | | | Happy, not a great spread, but if his odds aren't much |
| cents of odds and payoffs. | | | | lower than Happy's he might be a good bet, especially |
| So the place to start in developing your own easy | | | | if he is paying a lot more than Speedy. On the other |
| handicapping horse playing system is to figure out | | | | hand, if Happy is going off at much longer odds than |
| what factors you want to compare. Let's start with | | | | Grumpy, then he might be a better value. |
| speed and look at an example of how you can take | | | | The point is that you can make your own system, |
| speed, the trainer's winning percentage, and the | | | | understand it well, test it on paper, and see how it |
| jockey's winning percentage and turn them into one | | | | performs. Then you can tweak it any way you need |
| manageable number. | | | | to make it work for you. When testing it, write down |
| Let's say you add, "Speedy," the horse's last three | | | | the odds that each horse goes to post at and also |
| speed figures, such as, 78-80-75 and come up with a | | | | what the horse's score was. Make your adjustments, |
| total of 233. Next you round that number off, up or | | | | perhaps giving more weight to one factor than |
| down to the nearest ten. So 233 becomes 230. You | | | | another. |
| then turn it into a smaller more manageable number by | | | | To make your adjustments, let's say that you think |
| adding a decimal point, 23.0 and finally just make it 23. | | | | speed is more important than the jockey's win |
| So Speedy has earned a 23 for his speed figure. | | | | average. You might want to multiply the speed rating |
| Next, let's look at Speedy's trainer. The trainer's winning | | | | by 1.2 so that it has more weight or reduce the |
| percentage is very important. Perhaps, Speedy's | | | | jockey's average by multiplying by .9 or .8. Just take it |
| trainer wins 33% of his races and earns a 33. Finally, | | | | slow and use your best judgment and above all else, |
| let's look at the jockey. She wins 18% of the races she | | | | enjoy your days at the races. |
| rides in and therefore earns an 18. Now let's add those | | | | |